Экспертная оценка Академии Геополитики.
Войска Азербайджана и Турции, вооруженные российским и израильским оружием, 02 апреля напали на Нагорно-Карабахскую Республику.
В ночь с первого на второе апреля Азербайджан развязал крупномасштабные военные действия на границе Нагорно-Карабахской Республики с использованием установок залпового огня, бронетехники, авиации и артиллерии, поражая не только армянские позиции, но и населенные пункты.
После ответных действий с армянской стороны, неся людские и материальные потери, Азербайджан 4 дня использовал истребители и тяжелые виды оружия для вторжения на территорию Нагорного Карабаха.
Баку все последние годы шаг за шагом шел на обострение, наращивая давление. Причиной тому стало то, что данная стратегия Баку не удостоилась адекватной оценки ни на международной арене, ни на дипломатическо-политическом уровне Армении. Более того, армянская дипломатия позволила себе целый ряд упущений и грубых ошибок, которые усугубили ситуацию.
Каждый раз, когда Азербайджан наращивал масштабы провокаций, предпринимались попытки понять, что толкнуло Баку на такой шаг. И на этот раз мы пытаемся понять, что позволило Баку предпринять чуть ли не широкомасштабную войну.
Предположений масса и сложно найти «спонсоров» Алиева. Одно очевидно – Алиев не стал бы самостоятельно принимать подобные решения, не имея четких гарантий со стороны.
Хотя главной гарантией является нынешняя геополитическая ситуация. Азербайджан оказался в тупике, да и не только он, но и вся международная ситуация.
Продолжается глобальный конфликт, который проявляется в нескольких узлах, пребывающих на грани перегрева. Таковым является и Кавказ, который уже почти перешел эту грань: См. «Что происходит в Абхазии » — http://www.prezidentpress.ru/news/3916-chto-proishodit-v-abhazii.html .
Глобальный конфликт происходит за новый миропорядок, поскольку старый оказался в естественном кризисе. И развязка старых конфликтов предполагается уже в условиях нового миропорядка.
Основные геополитические актеры оказались равноудаленными от сторон Арцахского конфликта. В случае глобального конфликта это становится для Баку гарантией милитаризации, пока конфликт не решился на более высоком уровне.
Дело в том, что векторы развязки большого конфликта невыгодны Баку, поскольку она может привести к ослаблению на Кавказе векового российско-турецкого союза, к переходу региона от военно-политической напряженности к режиму экономической генерации. И главным шагом на этом пути должно стать размещение в зоне конфликта механизмов расследования, которые Баку отвергает. Это предложение не приветствует и Москва, хотя ее союзник Армения сделала это.
Поведение Москвы и Анкары имеют существенное значение в смысле «гарантий» для Азербайджана. И дело не только в том, что Россия и Турция являются одним из полюсов конфликта, пытающимся сформировать свою ось сопротивления новому миропорядку, что мы видим в Сирии и в Ираке: См. «Эхо наших публикаций. Турция и Иран грабят Ирак » — http://www.prezidentpress.ru/news/3862-eho-nashih-publikaciy-turciya-i-iran-grabyat-irak.html . А в том, что Турция и Россия проводили политику, которая направлена на нейтрализацию субъектности Армении, превратив ее в аргумент в торге с Азербайджаном. Это началось с 2004 года, когда российско-азербайджанские отношения стали называться «стратегическим партнерством», и Путин возложил цветы «к аллее шехидов», где похоронены убивавшие армян «герои». Это партнерство стало дополняться военно-техническим сотрудничеством, которое достигло миллиардов долларов.
Все это вызвало в Армении не противостояние, а парад «подданства». Власти и невласти соревновались в сдаче Москве политической субъектности Армении, оппозиции вообще не было. Часть общественного сектора занималась явным манипулированием, заявляя, что пусть лучше Азербайджан покупает оружие у Турции, Израиля и у России, потому что она не позволит использовать его против армян.
Теперь армян в Карабахе убивают из оружия турецкого и российского производства, и армяне воюют против российской и израильской техники и вооружений.
Понимают ли оправдывавшие продажи российского оружия Азербайджану власти и невласти, что способствовали приближению войны?
Вместе с оружием Азербайджан получил от Турции, Израиля и от России и право на его применение. Фактически, Россия, включив Армению в состав ЕАЭС и продав Азербайджану колоссальное количество оружия, продемонстрировала, что готова попрать интересы своего союзника.
Это и есть право и гарантия России для Азербайджана. Тем более, на фоне сделки «территории в обмен на миротворцев», которую Москва предлагала Баку.
Вот почему Кремль не приветствовал идею о размещении механизмов мониторинга, которые могли бы защитить Армению – потому что они ограничивают шансы появления в регионе миротворцев и возможности шантажа.
И тут вновь столкнулись глобальная ситуация и беспрецедентная провокация Азербайджана, что совпало по времени с вашингтонским саммитом по ядерной безопасности. Достаточно посмотреть кадры встречи Алиева с госсекретарем США Керри, чтобы понять, насколько дискомфортно ощущал себя Алиев, когда его пытались привести в конструктивное поле и получить согласие по вопросу размещения международных механизмов.
Видимо, после этого Алиев решил пойти на «Блиц-криг», пока есть возможность выбраться безнаказанным из глобального конфликта. И не случайно по возвращении из Баку Алиев заявил на заседании Совета нацбезопасности о предложении России, которое умещается «в рамках территориальной целостности Азербайджана» — См. «Бои в зоне карабахского конфликта не прекращаются- комментарии Араика Саргсяна»: http://echo.msk.ru/news/1741144-echo.html .
Сейчас Алиева может наказать только Армения, и надо сказать, что это геополитически востребовано — если Армения возьмет в союзники свой интерес и инстинкт самосохранения.
Сейчас стоит задача восстановить инстинкт самосохранения Азербайджана, и свою часть этой задачи армянские силы выполняют.
Между тем, мы можем опубликовать данные о потерях обеих сторон за последние дни на 06.04.2016 г.
Потери Азербайджанской армии: 18 танков, 3 БМП, 1 единица инженерной техники, 2 вертолета, 6 БЛА, 1 боевая машина реактивного огня 1ММ21. По оценкам Генштаба ВС РФ, число потерь противника превышает 300, число раненых уточняется.
Потери Армии Карабаха: 7 танков, 20 человек убитыми, из коих 6 офицеров и прапорщиков, 74 раненых – 8 офицеров и прапорщиков. 4 погибших – гражданские лица.
В свою очередь, глава МИД Ирана призвал к мирному урегулированию в Карабахе — Министр иностранных дел Ирана Моххамад Джавад Зариф в беседе с армянским коллегой призвал к мирному урегулированию карабахской проблемы.
По словам Зарифа, как передают иранские СМИ, необходимо немедленно прекратить столкновения и установить спокойствие в регионе. Иран может содействовать урегулированию противоречий между сторонами при желании последних.
Зариф уже отправился в иранский город Рамсар, где на 5-6 апреля планируется его встреча с министрами иностранных дел Азербайджана и Турции. По сообщению из Пекина, 7 апреля Китайская Народная Республика готовится внести на рассмотрение ООН вопрос признания Нагорного Карабаха независимой республикой: См. фото.
Геополитическая игра вокруг Нагорного- Карабаха приобретает новую окраску.
Продолжение следует.
Араик Саргсян, академик, Почётный Консул Македонии в Армении, президент Академии Геополитики, представитель АМС в Ираке.
The Azerbaijani — Turkish military operation » Blitzkrieg » already failed.
Expert assessment of Academy of Geopolitics.
As of April 6, the updated data on the losses of the Defense Army of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic are: 32 deaths, 121 injured and 25 missing soldiers, Armenpress informed, referring to the press conference of the head of the operative unit of the NKR Defense Army Victor Arstamyan.
According to him, on April 5-6 Azerbaijan regularly violated the ceasefire, using tanks, mortars, grenade launchers and other weapons.
Arstamyan also stressed that the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic keep the situation at the line of contact under control.
Many times the Russians and a lot of so-called Armenians announced proudly that Russia will not allow the war to start, and the Russian military base in Gyumri will take part in the war on the side of Armenia. Now Vladimir Putin is quiet as a fish.
Why did the war take place then and why doesn’t Russia stop the war? Because it is impossible – the quantity of weapons supplied to Azerbaijan has done its job, and now Russia which expected a short and manageable war has appeared in the state of a miserable country in inaction.
The Russians could go to Baku and persuade the Azeris and that’s it. And those in Yerevan who claimed and argued that Russia will not allow a war and will support Armenia should leave for the battlefield, not warm their pillows. They can’t be seen on TV and in websites, only the pro-government and pro-Russian idiots are left.
So what do the Russians hope for now? The permission of the Azeris to deploy Russian troops in the area of the conflict and not to allow the Americans there? The Americans are not keen on interfering with the zone of confrontation. They have never said they would be able to prevent a situation from escalating into a war. This would have been stupid and indecent. However, the Americans did not supply weapons to the Azeris.
Now the main political issue for Armenia is that they have appeared in a full political isolation and the Western community, primarily NATO, views Armenia as a rival. And all the adopted programs of cooperation with NATO turned out to be titular.
Armenia is considered as a rival or rather a vassal of Russia, even goodwill organizations consider it as Russia’s marionette. Armenia appeared to be an isolated country except for the paper clatter that Edward Nalbandyan is doing in different capitals. Nobody needs Armenia.
What happened had been repeated innumerable times: the young people at the front line will have to deal with it, not the friends of the ruling regime. As was assumed, it would have been interesting for the West to demonstrate that Russia has lost both the war and the political position, having been left with nothing.
Armenia is paying for Russia’s actions, and nobody will come to its recue. Why would one protect Russia’s vassal and marionette? Out of humanism? In politics this happens highly rare but never for Russia’s interests.
This is a lasting war. If the Azeris stop it, the current ruling regime will crash. So, the Russians have a lot of chance to admit their incapability.
So what is the Russian military base in Gyumri going to do? It was, if I’m not mistaken, going to fight with Turkey. Is it ready now? Perhaps it is.
However, it has been announced that in case of a war the Russian troops are going to fight with the Azeris. Where are they now, near Martakert or Hadrut? This cowardly army may only strike from the air and only when the enemy has no anti-aircraft weapons. This is a wonderful setting for gaining experience.
They may say it is not time for such analysis. But when will there be time? We are tried to figure out this meanness for many years, and everything ends up in a war and Putin’s silence.
Very inspiring silence! He has nothing to say.
Azerbaijan by means of the Turkish troops and the Russian and Israeli weapon began on April 2 military aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh.
On the early morning of April 2 Azerbaijan unleashed large-scale military actions on the border with Nagorno Karabagh Republic (NKR). Azerbaijan used multiple rocket launching systems, armored vehicles, aviation, artillery, targeting not only the Armenian soldiers but also the populated settlements.
Having received a proper response and suffering considerable human and material losses, Azerbaijan kept the situation situation tense in the conflict zone for 4 days. And during the whole period, Azerbaijan kept on spreading absurd and contradictory misinformation. The aforementioned information contradicted the information provided by NKR and Armenian defense ministries in a significant manner.
We have tried to summarize the coverage of the events in the leading international media.
International
In particular, Associated Press was the first international media to inform about the start of hostilities. It was followed by ABC News and The Washington Post. At the same time, the media cited the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry Speaker who claimed that the hostilities started after the Armenian side used artillery. By referring to the same sources, The Washington Post mentioned about the Azerbaijani helicopter downed by the Armenian side (which, however, was denied by the Speaker of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry). Later on the NKR forces down another helicopter and publish photographs and videos as a proof.
Influential British BBC cited Russian President Vladimir Putin who had urged both sides of the conflict to stop the hostilities. It also presented the brief history of the conflict and the war in 1990s.
Euronews was the first among international media to publish video and photo materials from the military actions scene by reporting about the downing of the helicopter, as well as the destruction of tanks.
The live broadcast on CNN featuring the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabagh Republic (Elmar Mamedyarov and Karen Mirzoyan respectively) was really an exclusive one. It was exclusive because Artsakh (the Armenian name for Nagorno Karabagh) was de facto represented as a side of the conflict, and the Azerbaijani chief diplomat was entangled in his own misinformation.
Regional
The international Arabic Al Jazeera TV channel first published an article about the hostilities by mentioning that the conflict sides put the blame of provoking the military actions on each other. Then it addressed the Nagorno Karabagh conflict with a large-scale report where it was mentioned that it was Azerbaijan that provoked the hostilities on April 2.
The Georgian First Channel also addressed the escalation of the situation in the Nagorno Karabagh conflict zone and reported the official statements of NKR and Azerbaijan.
Russian
The Russian media, especially the news websites (Gazeta.ru. Lenta.ru. Tass.ru. Ria.ru) reported on Azerbaijan provoking the escalation by citing the Armenian sources, namely the press service of the NKR Defense Ministry.
Only a few hours later, when the enemy started to spread misinformation, the significant part of the Russian media started to spread that false propaganda. In particular, the popular Lenta.ru published the invented numbers of Azerbaijani propaganda machine as top news. In general, when we read the Russian media’s reports on the Karabagh-Azerbaijani conflict, we do not notice in any way that Armenia is Russia’s ally. Such a “cold” approach by the Russian side arouses questions. And the fact that the enemy uses the arms purchased from Russia (e.g. TOS1, Smerch) against Armenians is not less worrying. — The losses of the sides in the result of the military actions at the Karabakh-Azerbaijani line of contact recently are as follows.
Has Russia Waited Patiently or Has It Arranged This War?
Azerbaijan has launched military actions in a dilettante manner, most probably the wish came externally. The war has obviously been conducted not according to the plan of the Azerbaijani general staff but fragmentally since according to the plan of its general staff the Karabakh province should be caught in a siege or relative siege through two strikes from the south and the north deep into the territory of this province.
Azerbaijan preferred one of the most important directions, which it has apparently assumed is not the strongest one.
Strangely, though, Russia reacted very quickly, statements were made by the Russian president and defense minister and CSTO, which was quite unexpected, provided that the Russians were quiet in all the previous crises which resulted in deaths and casualties.
Russia has announced demonstratively that in fact both sides of the conflict bear responsibility. For the time being, they have not started linking these attempts of Azerbaijan with Russia’s interests. However, it is clear that Azerbaijan has linked this conflict with the summit in Washington in which Russia was not participating.
No doubt there is a complex game of the Russians. First, the Russians would love to demonstrate their presence where they are present anyway – in the South Caucasus – and to prove that others will have to deal with them in this region after they had been turned out from Syria. Following the meaningless operation in Syria Russia needs a convincing role in the area of their influence.
As of now, if Russia succeeds in getting into this situation, it will resolve the issue in favor of Azerbaijan – this is for sure.
One remembers how the Yerevan-based mutants claimed that Russia will not allow a war. It is interesting to know how, provided the huge volume of weapons supplied to Azerbaijan. Whose weapons does Azerbaijan use to fight?
It would have been naïve to think that Russia has nothing to do with this conflict. Weapons have been sold, money has been paid, now it is time to strengthen their political foothold in the region. The Russians need to demonstrate to Washington that they are present in the region and they do not need their presence in Washington, it is not their motif.
Mediocre commentators of the Karabakh province announced that in this case Turkey’s initiative is in place. How about the previous provocations, did they have nothing to do with Turkey? Or, is it possible that they did not and now Turkey has decided to make itself heard?
As was expected, the Karabakh province expressed doubts about Turkey, not Russia. This is what Russia needs. This is the second motif. Shifting everything on Turkey takes place from Yerevan, not from Stepanakert, like the disgraceful rally in Stepanakert related to Crimea.
Such manipulation of public opinion is a crime, and it is time to find the authors of these statements. The Armenian society and its apologists are in crap. In this situation, Russia understands that the Americans know about their possible involvement. Are the Turks interested in such accusations?
Finally, the third motif of the Russians is to thwart the intentions of the United States to settle the conflict and propose new means of freezing the conflicts. Moscow has contemplated a lot on this problem, therefore there is evidence. The Russians hope for limiting the war, and as they say, they will not allow an outburst of war. This is funny and hypocritical because the war is already going on and the Russians cannot stop it.
What is the word for a person who supplies weapons to an aggressor country when it is obvious that it is preparing a war? That word is “a criminal”. Vladimir Putin is a criminal, he is the person who prepared and inspired the war on Azerbaijan’s behalf.
It is not sanctions that await him, sanctions will remain for a long time. The international tribunal in the Hague is awaiting him and his team. It is possible to judge heads of big states.
The political leadership of Armenia will become their advocates but for how long? The key question is: has Russia waited for this war to start or has it arranged it? .
Azerbaijani side has lost 18 tanks, 3 infantry combat cars, 1 engineering equipment, 2 helicopters, 6 drones, 1 combat car of MM-21 reactive artillery. According to the estimates of the NKR Defense Army command, the deaths on the enemy’s side are at least 300. The number of casualties still has to be clarified.
The Armenian side has lost 7 tanks. The number of deaths is 20, including 6 officers. 72 are wounded, including 8 officers. The number of civilian deaths is 4, including a child.
Armenpress informed that this information was published by Colonel Victor Arstamyan, the head of Defense Army Operative Unit. He underlined that the Defense Army units are prepared and capable of fulfilling their tasks.
As to the territories, Victor Arstamyan said that the enemy has advanced 200-300 m and there are no towns or villages in those areas. Now the enemy has occupied five military posts in the Kazakhlar-Nyuzger direction and 3 positions in the Talish-Mataghis-Tapkarakoyunlu direction.
“In the night of April 2 the enemy used armored vehicles to launch attacks in new directions Horadiz-Nyugzer and Kazyan-Shurabad. The military units of the Defense Army, as well as Martakert and Talish were shelled. The attempts to attack in new directions were preempted. During the day the fights continued in Kazakhlar-Nyugzer, Tapkarakoyunlu-Talish directions. In the night of April 3 the enemy used armored vehicles to launch new actions. The enemy’s attempts to attack were preempted. During the day the fights continued,” Victor Arstamyan said.
He informed that the enemy, having lost the initiative, used the TOS system which did not produce any results. The enemy tried to use UAVs which were downed by the Defense Army. On the whole, during the military actions the enemy is widely using UAVs for reconnaissance and shelling some of which have been downed by the Defense Army units. From the city of Rakka (the capital of ISIL in Syria) Turkey threw 60 terrorists in Baku (the capital of Azerbaijan) for the help to Azerbaijan. http://echo.msk.ru/news/1741144-echo.html
Arayik SARGSYAN, academician, President of Academy of Geopolitics, Honorary Consul of Macedonia in Armenia.